Cardi B and Nicki Minaj are feuding. Stormy Daniels has described Donald Trump’s penis for us. A big storm in North Carolina demanded 24/7 coverage, even if reporters had to fake it.
The Shanghai International Port Group is expected to take management of a new private seaport at Haifa, Israel in 2021, bringing a Chinese presence to one of the region’s strategic harbors. The move has been met with fierce resistance from Israeli longshoremen, and according to a new report, it could also have implications for the U.S. Navy’s operations in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Shaul Horev dropped a bombshell, but hardly anyone noticed. Horev, an Israel Defense Forces reservist brigadier general who has served, among other posts, as the navy chief of staff and chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission, is currently director of the Research Center for Maritime Policy and Strategy at the University of Haifa. At the end of August, the center held a conference, to which participants from the United States were invited, to examine security issues relating to Israel and the Mediterranean region.
In an interview with the religious‐Zionist media outlet Arutz Sheva, Prof. Horev noted that one topic that came up at the event was Chinese investments in Mediterranean ports, and in Israel in particular. Pointing out that a Chinese company will soon start operating Haifa Port, he said that Israel needs to create a mechanism that will examine Chinese investments to ensure that they do not put Israel’s security interests at risk.
“When China acquires ports,” Horev said, “it does so under the guise of maintaining a trade route from the Indian Ocean via the Suez Canal to Europe, such as the port of Piraeus in Greece. Does an economic horizon like this have a security impact? We are not weighing that possibility sufficiently. One of the senior American figures at the conference raised the question of whether the U.S. Sixth Fleet can see Haifa as a home port. In light of the Chinese takeover, the question is no longer on the agenda.”
Historian Alfred McCoy will tell you exactly what’s going on — and it does not bode well for the American Imperium:
“China has been conducting a very skillful geopolitical strategy, so‐called ‘One belt, One road’ or ‘Silk Road’ strategy and what China has been doing since about 2007 is they’ve spent a trillion dollars and they’re going to spend another trillion dollars in laying down a massive infrastructure of rails and gas and oil pipelines that will integrate the entire Eurasian landmass. Look, Europe and Asia, which we think of as — we’re learning in geography in elementary school that they’re two separate continents — they’re not. They were only separated by the vast distances, the steps in the desert that seem to divide them. Well China’s laid down, through a trillion dollars investment, a series of pipelines that are bringing energy from Central Asia across thousands of miles into China, from Siberia into China.
“They’ve also built seven bases in the South China Sea and they’re taking control over these — spent over $200 million in transforming a fishing village on the Arabian Sea named Gwadar, in Pakistan, into a major modern port. They’ve also got port facilities in Africa. And through these port facilities they’re cutting those circles of steel that the United States laid down to kind of link and hold those two axial ends of Eurasia. So we are slowly, because of China’s investment, its development, some of our mismanagement of our relationships and long‐term trends, those axial ends of Eurasia they’re crumbling. Our power, our control over that critical continent is weakening, and China’s control is slowly inexorably increasing and that is going to be a major geopolitical shift. One that is going to weaken the United States and strengthen China.”
That’s from a podcast interview with The Intercept’s Jeremy Scahill. I highly recommend it.
I even more strongly recommend McCoy’s book In The Shadows of the American Century, where he marks the sunset date of American Empire at 2030. McCoy isn’t postulating an apocalyptic collapse, but rather a diminution, an eclipse as China’s economy surpasses America’s and our ability to shape and manage international relations and events declines. A decline in relative raw military power, collapsing educational standards and a concomitant loss of the technological edge that has formed the basis for both economic and military power since World War II mean the post‐war “American Century” is ending.
“Either with a bang or a whimper,” McCoy says. “But by 2030, it’s pretty much over for our global dominion.”
Given that McCoy is a strong critic of American Empire, who has had some fascinating run‐ins with the national security state since the 1970s, you might think he’d welcome the sunset. Not so.
“There are many problems with the U.S. exercise of its power but we have stood for human rights, the world has had 70 years of relative peace and lots of medium size wars but nothing like World War I and World War II. There has been an increase in global development, the growth of a global economy, with many inequities, but nonetheless, transnationally, a new middle class is appearing around the globe. We’ve stood for labor rights and environmental protection. Our successor powers, China and Russia, are authoritarian regimes. Russia’s autocratic, China’s a former communist regime. They stand for none of these liberal principles.
“So you’ll have the realpolitik exercise of power, all the downsides with none of the upsides, with none of the positive development. I mean we’ve stood for women’s rights, for gay rights, for human progress, for democracy. You know we’ve been flawed in efficacy, but we’ve stood for those principles and we have advanced them. So we have been, on the scale of empires, comparatively benign and beneficent. And I don’t think the succeeding powers are going to be that way.”
In 2030, my daughter will be just entering her 30s. She’s smart, well‐educated and she’s got a level‐headed and resilient temperament. All I can do is hope that we’ve helped her to develop the mindset and the skillset to navigate a world very different from the one into which she was born.
Me? I’ll be 65. My ambition is an Airstream in the desert with Marilyn, where I can watch the sunset with a rifle and a kettlebell to hand, a guitar in my lap, and a good book with which to while away the long night.
Nice image: desert, rifle, Airstream, books and a guitar. Might be a good idea to learn Chinese, too.
I’ll probably stick to Spanish. It’s the loving tongue, soft as music, light as rain.
Just to play Devil’s Advocate, but while China’s star is on the rise, there is a lot of cultural rot in China. Corruption is epidemic over there so much that bribing officials is normal for foreign business men. My sister in law taught art in California and she had a conversation with another teacher that taught in China. Both agreed that cheating on tests is not only common but seen as a right. People would opening copy of each other in class in front of the teachers (who don’t care). This kind of culture can not be good in the long term.
Of course, America has its own problems.
It’s always a mistake to view an adversary as an omnipotent, shit‐in‐one‐bag force that can’t be reckoned with. I’m old enough to remember when Japanese interests were buying everything in LA and we all thought they were invincible. Look how that turned out. But the China threat to U.S. dominance has a lot more foundation than the Rising Sun scenario. It’s not that they will “take over the world” but that the long‐anticipated realization of a rising Eurasia will make the world a more difficult one for the U.S. to navigate and influence. As competition for resources becomes more fierce, the difficulties will multiply.
We (the U.S.) might not plummet to the Third World but we’ll be firmly entrenched n the Second World–we might even be at one end of that spectrum now.
I told you I’ve been thinking of upgrading guitars … you cannot find a single American made guitar these days selling under $1000. Even the Japanese companies are in the high game now and outsource their mid‐line guitars to Indonesia and China.
Wow — the Martin 15 series mahogany are $1200‐plus now. Shee‐it!
I agree with the summation here of a very strong possibility of this outcome. The Chinese are shrewdly taking advantage of the voids that money can fill by partnering (or leveraging) unethically or otherwise with those we will not. Unfortunately we do not always hold the high ground with examples to emulate. The only chance we [the world] has is that the virtues of freedom take hold against outright oppression. That is a very loaded statement I know. Nature will no doubt be taking the lead and forcing new directions as resources that fund all of this become a challenge both in availability and the vengeful wrath of ensuing disasters for abuses against her. As I have mentioned, I have several good Chinese friends. Much the same as I view our errant political and business adventures I view the Chinese with the same eye. My fear is that we alienate ourselves for whatever reasons from them. It seems we both have too much at stake to go too far, but who knows. You are dealing with a culture thousands of years old. They hold a different view, but it is changing fast too. If they ally themselves fully with Russia it could get very concerning not to mention the others out there. That is why I would agree with a diminishment which of course drives the MAGA mantra crowd to bouts of delirium. It’s not easy to have the shoe on the other foot especially when someone is shoving it up your ass. The British know this well. America is not very popular amongst the Chinese populous either, but we have a rapidly growing population of Chinese and Chinese Americans and other Asians in the United States. It would seem that an economic war and pursuits of position will not necessarily create a head to head military confrontation other than in dispensable proxy wars. War is war and dead is dead, but there is a major difference when it is on your homeland and all is at stake. Nobody can say for certain. In the recent film Crazy Rich Asians (which I attended) there was a scene at an opulent feast where the children were being admonished to remember that there are starving children in America. The opening scene was a mother and her children trying to check into a fancy British hotel and being refused. After mentioning a name a very dignified British gentleman came out and welcomed her with open arms telling the clerk that this was the new owner. The clerk had to then go and mop up the floor where her young son had tracked in mud and water as it was raining outside. Ego. Pride. This is at much at stake as is the moral argument or necessity of survival. We [America] the good, the bad and the ugly always had the sense that we were indisputably Numero Uno. All the ugliness has come out to play now and we better get back to being the best we had to offer or we will be our own undoing, which perhaps seems to be more the case.
By the way, I just ordered a vintage copy of the October 1971 RAMPARTS MAGAZINE with a cartoon on the cover of Richard Nixon and crew in a small boat roiling in heavy seas surrounded by sharks. I am also struck by the irony that Nixon opened the doors to China. Think about it though. At one time Japan was a closed society too. You can go either direction with that as well. I am also reminded of the Chinese parable about the Chinese Farmer And His Horse. The horse ran away. Was this good news or bad news? Maybe…
“collapsing educational standards”
Speaking of which
https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/detroit/2018/06/29/judge-dismisses-lawsuit-against-snyder-over-detroit-kids-literacy/747732002/
“A federal judge dismissed late Friday a headline‐grabbing lawsuit that accused Gov. Rick Snyder and other state officials of depriving Detroit kids of their right to literacy.
In a 40‐page opinion, Judge Stephen Murphy III wrote that the state is not obligated to provide a minimal level of education by which students can obtain the ability to learn how to read.
The plaintiffs in the 2016 case were students who attended some of the lowest‐performing schools in Detroit while the city’s school system was under the control of state‐appointed emergency managers.
The children argued through their attorneys that literacy is a right under the U.S. Constitution. They said the state had denied them that through decades of “disinvestment” and “indifference,” with their schools in such poor shape that they hadn’t received even a minimally adequate education. ”
Being only half a century in and limited in my international experience, I would agree this seems a bit different. China’s foundational investment internationally, unapologetic long‐game approach and being unencumbered with the West’s, entitled, triggered reality television based disposition, seems to have them marching right along (for now).
Having said that and given recent interactions with members of our own military as my oldest embarks on his own USCG experience (aka Life Academy), in addition to the last 25 years of working with some amazing domestic warriors, I am reminded of how fortunate we are to call our country home.
There was a great moment during a recent podcast between Elon Musk and Rogan when he asks him about the LA car tunnels. At one point, Musk says, “Im not saying it’s gonna be successful… but I don’t see any other ideas?” (4:29 of the counter) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycPr5-27vSI I love that one of our own after dealing with 16 years of LA traffic and wondering why nobody was doing anything about it, starts digging giant holes and proceeds to tunnel a mile at a time under the city of Los Angeles. Probably cheaper than this disaster of a high speed rail that will never be completed.
Depending on which version of the historical, biblical, scientific ending you subscribe to if you do at all, the amazing and simultaneous brutal nature of humanity is kind of our thing.…..
P.S. I hit 65 in 3 months and 10 years can make a lot of difference. New Mexico is looking better all the time. Maybe we can at least still be neighbors by state again. New Mexico got her hold on me long ago and Arizona is always within easy reach. Funny when I pulled over to the entrance to Skeleton Canyon a few years back and pulled over to photograph the sign there were the skeletal remains of a Rattlesnake beneath it. Planted or a coincidence I will never know…
I feel the pull of Apacheria. Always have.
Was it planted or a coincidence? I will never know.
Airstream. Yeah!! Live simple. Be complicated.
Livin’ out of your jockey box…
Robert Kaplan’s books are good on this kind of stuff. They bring the “Geography” back into Geopolitics. The most recent is “The Return of Marco Polo’s World” which focuses on the new Silk Road.
However, there are also other short essays including one on the warrior culture in the US Military in Vietnam that many here may enjoy.
Dammit Breaker! — Just ordered Marco.
Seriously, didn’t know Kaplan had a recent one. Thanks for the heads up.
Just beware: I ordered 3 kindle books from the Vietnam chapter and wanted more.
At some point, I have to read Jean Larteguy’s books on Indochina and Algeria.
I have become very disillusioned of late with my country. To say that we have championed multifarious human rights is true to a point but is counterbalanced by the ungodly amount of suffering we have propagated by enriching American exploiters abroad, interfering physically in foreign politics, and supporting brutal dictatorships. I do believe deeply in the idea of America though and I worry deeply about our childrens’ future. In reference to that map; I have to take my shoes off if I want to be allowed to get on a plane from Toledo to Des Moines, but we allow China to run what appear to be several truly strategic ports on the west coast and the Gulf? What swamp creature lacked the cojones to declare our ports national security interests? That’s the sort of thinking that leads to decline; akin to Rome outsourcing military work to the barbarian provinces.
Excellent analogy.
How about Theodore Roosevelt taking control of the Panama Canal?
As is usually the case when we do it we try to portray it as a beneficent act.
Like it or not foreign investment is a way of life in the U.S. The Committe For Foreign Investment oversees it for good or ill. Trust me, if an American is not profiting from it somehow it will not happen. That’s who we need to stop first. Just like the immigration issue at large. Americans profited from their labor, yet we go after the immigrant. This is not to say that they are guilt free and blameless. Scapegoating is always the easy way to apply blame. The port is a cutthroat environment with all kinds of abuses carried out by Americans. If need be it could be militarily shut down by us in a heartbeat. That would of course have dire economic impacts. I personally do not agree with the port activity as akin to outsourcing the military. We outsource everything when it becomes profitable for someone in the U.S. and until it does not it will not stop. Jim, you mentioned the “Rising Sun” scenario. How about the beating death of Vincent Chin, a Chinese American in Detroit over autoworker job losses blamed on the Japanese. An Asian is an Asian is an Asian I guess. Much like the many Sikh truck drivers and Sikh owned trucking companies many that come down from Canada. They are prevalent in California. The ignorant think they are Arab or Muslim towell heads. I will say this. They are brave and ambitious. I go out of my way engage them in the truck stops and and elsewhere and they are always very friendly and helpful. Yes, many have swords emblazoned on there tractors or trailers but as a point of pride. That takes some guts with the potential for hate crimes. Is there only one type of America that counts? Capitalism is by it’s very nature and beginnings is cutthroat, ruthless and almost lawless. Is world domination the only way it can be satisfied? If not, how much give and how much take? How much blood? As far as me, I’m just a toothpick in a logjam trying to loosen my way out.
You were saying?
https://money.cnn.com/2018/09/21/technology/twitch-china-blocked-amazon/index.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/20/eric-schmidt-ex-google-ceo-predicts-internet-split-china.html
I too am against all the “essions” such as suppression, oppression and so on no matter within what borders. Nationalism by it’s nature is self protective. Theodore Roosevelt brought us out of isolation for a reason in spite of what it has wrought. I listen to China from the inside as well from ex pat viewpoints. As compared to Japan for example it is still the Wild West. Japan by comparison is clean, orderly and yes subdued and yeah, very crowded. It’s all on how you like it. I am very against the Chinese government as a whole, but I cannot blame them. We would do the same if we could get away from it. Hell, we are in a surveillance state as it is. Just try to take it on and you will see. The White Hats and Black Hats have turned a pale grey too much for my liking. Repair our own shit and stay out of others shit as much as possible. Therein lies the rub…
You are anticipating my next post.…
The Chicoms are damn smart, brilliant‐ they operate on the principal of “What is good For the Communist Party is good for China”. All over the globe, they use Sun Tzu with great skill and total ruthlessness‐ to gain their objectives
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ministry_of_State_Security_(China)
The tens of thousands of people who have been disappeared by the Chicom’s Cheka‐ the MSS, probably do not agree.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/02/china-surveillance/552203/
They have put a surveillance state in place that would make Lenin, Stalin, Mao, and Pol Pot and that old SOAB Adolf‐ weep crocodile tears of joy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eViswN602_k
It seems Google and other American tech companies have assisted the Communist Chinese in accomplishing this.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiananmen_Square_protests_of_1989
I was in Korea when the Tiananmen massacre happened, Korean TV had some real time news feeds that showed much of the horror.
Make no mistake they are as bad as the Nazi’s- maybe worse.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Office_of_Personnel_Management_data_breach
They are constantly honing their intell advantage. The above was a epic disaster for the US. That could cost us dearly
Short game it was a good idea to allow them to open up and join the world community at the time the Soviets were the major threat to world freedom.
Long game it was a mistake to allow them to enter the world arena and gain power.
Their intent is to replace the political thought of Jefferson and Washington world wide with that of Mao and Kang Sheng.
They are our major rival on the world stage, and a enemy that we could lose to‐ and lose to the extent that we could lose our Republic
Tighten down your helmet straps‐ the times are going to get even more interesting.